Oscar Nominations and Winner Predictions 2009

It’s Oscar nominations day.

I know, I know – it’s all just a hideous, self-congratulatory, intellectually bankrupt fashion show. But I love it.

Today started off as a bad day, then the nominations cheered me up. And then technology brought me back down again. I tried three times to record a video to go with this, but my phone failed every time, so I’m just going with text.

Every year, my friend Lize and I swap Oscar predictions. This year, I thought I’d publish mine.

I’ve never seen the films – most don’t come out in England until much later – and even though I’m in Canada now, most of these don’t make it up here. Plus I hardly ever go to the cinema any more.

So it’s a bit like going to the dog track and taking a cursory look at the form before placing your bets. I think it’s more exciting that way.

The thing that makes it even better, though, is second guessing the way Academy members will vote. Just like the fittest dog or horse doesn’t always win, so the films with the best form often don’t take the Oscars. The Golden Globes are more predictable – there are very few Hollywood Foreign Press voters, and they actually judge films on their aesthetic merits. The Academy voters are swayed much more by money, glamour, promotion and commercialism. I remember the first time I really understood the awful genius of this – the night that Forrest Gump beat Pulp Fiction.

Sometimes, I even place bets. The best category to bet on is Best Director. I think I won about £400 on Roman Polanski from a £20 bet.

Anyway, here are my predictions. I explained my reasoning for each in my video, but never mind.

List of Oscar Nominations with Predicted Winners:

WINNER: * “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* “Milk” (Focus Features)
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight)

* Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
WINNER: * Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

* Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
WINNER: * Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

* Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
WINNER: * Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

* Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
WINNER: * Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

* “Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
WINNER: * “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

* “Changeling” (Universal), Tom Stern
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Claudio Miranda
* “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
WINNER: * “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
WINNER: * “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

* “The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)” (Cinema Guild), A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
* “Encounters at the End of the World” (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment), A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
* “The Garden” A Black Valley Films Production, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
WINNER: * “Man on Wire” (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
* “Trouble the Water” (Zeitgeist Films), An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

* “The Baader Meinhof Complex” A Constantin Film Production, Germany
* “The Class” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
* “Departures” (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
* “Revanche” (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
WINNER: * “Waltz with Bashir” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

WINNER: * “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
* “Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

* “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
* “Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
* “In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
WINNER: * “Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

13 thoughts on “Oscar Nominations and Winner Predictions 2009

  1. well if it makes you feel better, I’ve only seen walle. which should win. the first half an hour rocked.

    rupee, I have to interview a woman, on monday, called … mary elizabeth mastrantonio. can you give me a quick sentence or two about a) scarface and b) the colour of money.

    to think about, rather than to print or to ask her.


    can you?


  2. You got it all right.


    Best Picture/Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire, not Benjamin Button

    …And I hope that Mickey Rourke wins over Sean Penn, and Kate Winslet wins over Meryl Streep!

  3. I predict Slumdog Millionaire for best picture, Mickey Rourke or Brad Pitt for best actor, Kate Winslet for best actess, and Penelope Cruz for best supporting actress.

    We all know Heath Ledger was phenominal. Sometimes the Oscars are sneaky though. This is an unusual prediction, but I’m actually going for Robert Downy Junior. It might be like the year when Russel Crowe didn’t win the best actor nomination for Beautiful Mind when it went to Denzel Washington for Training Day. I also feel that Downy Junior’s performance in Tropic Thunder was comparable to Heath Ledger’s. They were both so deep in character that you couldn’t tell who they were if you didn’t know who they were.

  4. Jeff that might be the worst prediction about Downey Junior i have ever heard. People are astounded that he is an even nominated, let alone win. Heath was spectacular and is considered one of the greatest villains of all time as opposed to Downey who was a joke. Your a moron.

  5. @matt We don’t do “your a moron” here. Thanks, though. And it was John who predicted RDJr to win, not Jeff. I’ve heard great things about his performance, satirizing himself and method acting, stealing every scene. Acting in a comedy shouldn’t bar you from a serious nomination. If it weren’t Heath’s year, he might well have won. But he won’t, unless there’s a Heath backlash – which seems unlikely.
    @kara you could be right about the screenplay
    and @jimmycraichead & kara it’d be good if winslet won, but i think meryl deserves it more, although really she should have been nominated (and should win) for mamma mia, which would have been a mess without her
    @missbhavens & @jeff send me your picks. i will win!

  6. I like some of your picks but as much as I want Benjamin Button to win Bp and Adapted Screenplay I highly doubt it will. Meryl Streep will not win for best actress unless Kate keeps playing the I want an oscar so badly game. I think Rourke will get the oscar over Penn and Slumdog is taking Cinemotagraphy.

  7. i do agree “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” will grab the oscar for best picture.
    i dont like Meryl Streep to win for Best Acting in leading role, she’s boring. What i want to win is Angelina Jolie or Kate Winslet for that slot.

  8. I could be a “Slumdog Millionaire” if i see the “Curious Case of Benjamin Button” will win the Oscar for Best Picture. But the “Reader” said that “Frost/Nixon” will fight to get “Milk” on that night.

  9. well i hope angelina and brad go home with at least an oscar. i also would like to see the dutchess get best costume. and i think you all are just being sentimental about heath ledger

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